- New ATH: Bitcoin ripped to a fresh record above $125,000 on October 5, 2025, topping its mid‑August peak and extending an eight‑day winning streak. Reuters
- Intraday range: BTC touched an intraday high near $125,500 before easing back.
- The factor to watch: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged ~$3.24B in weekly net inflows (week ending Oct. 3) — the second‑best week on record — a powerful signal that demand remains strong. CoinDesk
- Expert view (technical): “Technically a sustained break above $125k could propel BTC to $150,000,” wrote IG’s Tony Sycamore. Reuters
- Expert view (flows + macro): Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick: “The shutdown matters this time around … Bitcoin has traded with ‘U.S. government risks’.” He also expects “another $20 billion” of ETF inflows by year‑end. Decrypt
- Macro tailwinds: A weaker U.S. dollar, upbeat equities and ETF inflows are underpinning the move. Reuters
- Street targets: JPMorgan says the “debasement trade” could carry BTC toward $165,000 on a volatility‑adjusted basis vs. gold; Standard Chartered sees a quick run to $135k with a path to $200k if flows persist. CoinDesk
A new milestone — and why it matters
Bitcoin’s breakout above $125,000 sets a fresh all‑time high and confirms the market has worked through summer resistance near the prior peak (~$124.5k). The move capped eight straight sessions of gains as risk appetite improved and ETF demand stayed steady. Reuters
At the highs, BTC traded around $125.5k intraday before settling lower — a reminder that price discovery at new records can be volatile.
The factor pointing to further gains: ETF demand is surging again
The clearest signal that this rally still has fuel is spot Bitcoin ETF flows. U.S. spot ETFs pulled in ~$3.24B in net inflows in the week ended Oct. 3, the second‑largest weekly haul since launch — just as BTC was pressing new highs. Historically, sustained positive net flows have coincided with trend continuation. CoinDesk
Daily data corroborate the re‑acceleration. Flow trackers show a near‑$1B single‑day net inflow on Oct. 3, and reports noted > $2B of net inflows across the week as “Uptober” momentum returned. Farside Investors
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick ties those flows to macro uncertainty: “Net Bitcoin ETF inflows are now at $58 billion … I would expect at least another $20 billion by year‑end.” If that proves right, structural demand from ETFs would continue to overwhelm new supply post‑halving — a recipe for follow‑through. Decrypt
What the pros are saying
- Technical setup: “Technically a sustained break above $125k could propel BTC to $150,000,” said Tony Sycamore of IG, highlighting how clearing overhead resistance can unlock the next leg higher. Reuters
- Macro‑market linkage: “The shutdown matters this time around … Bitcoin has traded with ‘U.S. government risks’.” That lens helps explain why BTC is rallying alongside a softer dollar and shifting rate expectations. Decrypt
- Sell‑side targets: JPMorgan argues BTC remains undervalued relative to gold on a volatility‑adjusted basis and sees a path toward $165k as the “debasement trade” persists. Standard Chartered expects a quick run to $135k and says the rally could stretch to $200k if ETF inflows re‑accelerate. CoinDesk
Macro tailwinds now favor Bitcoin
Three forces aligned into the breakout:
- Dollar drifted lower as investors penciled in further Fed easing, boosting store‑of‑value assets. Reuters
- Equities firmed, reinforcing overall risk appetite. Reuters
- Policy backdrop: friendlier U.S. regulatory tone and the breadth of ETF access continue to pull mainstream capital into BTC. Reuters
Levels to watch
Traders are eyeing $126k–$135k as the next resistance band, with options positioning clustering around $135k–$140k. A decisive weekly close above $125k would lend technical confirmation to the breakout thesis. CoinDesk
Risks to the bull case
- Flow reversals: ETF net inflows can swing; sharp outflows would sap momentum. (Flow trackers provide early warning.) Farside Investors
- Macro shocks: Faster‑than‑expected tightening of financial conditions, a dollar rebound, or risk‑off shocks could undercut the move. Reuters
- Regulatory curveballs: Although the tone has improved, policy surprises remain a recurring crypto risk. Reuters
Bottom line
Bitcoin has broken new ground above $125,000, and ETF inflows — the market’s cleanest real‑time gauge of institutional demand — are re‑accelerating. With macro tailwinds and technicals aligned, the balance of evidence argues the move has room to run, even as short‑term pullbacks remain likely in price discovery. Reuters
Sources & further reading
- Reuters breaking report on the new ATH and drivers. Reuters
- Investopedia wrap on the record and market cap context. Investopedia
- CoinDesk on the $3.24B ETF inflows powering this leg higher. CoinDesk
- Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick on flows and near‑term targets. CoinDesk
- Reuters (Aug. 14) technical comment from IG’s Tony Sycamore. Reuters
- JPMorgan’s $165k framework via CoinDesk. CoinDesk
- Farside daily ETF flow dashboard. Farside Investors
